Monday, May 05, 2008
A FINE MESS
It was in the old Laurel and Hardy series of 1930’s era movies that the phrase was often muttered at the end of some misadventure, “A fine mess you got us into, Ollie.” Of course, most of the bad stuff had happened to Oliver Hardy, while the divine klutz, Stan Laurel, had bumbled his way into and through the incident.
At this point in the presidential race, the Militant Moderate is prone to want to address the electorate, and the core leadership of both political parties, with that comment, “A fine mess you’ve gotten us into!”
We are left with three candidates in the race. From conversations with friends and acquaintances, as well as polls, all of these are unacceptable to a sizeable segment of the electorate.
Some Democrat friends tell me they will not now vote for Obama if he is the party candidate. Hillary has had a standing disapproval rating in the past of some 35% or 40%. Huge numbers of Republicans are threatening to bolt their party, and stay home or vote for Hillary.
It looks as though this election is shaping up to be one for perception as the “lesser of the evils.” If it carries through that way, then the previously unlikely scenario of the “moderate” Hillary as the November winner could happen – if her surge is not too late.
To support such a conclusion, one must look closely at the reasons for negativity toward each candidate, as well as its strength. This is why we pick Hillary.
Hillary has the higher level of negative numbers, but for shallow reasons. Further, her stronger negative ratings come from Republicans.
Since the preacher eruption linking Obama to the “angry black man” image, his negative numbers have been increasing. More questions arise, “Do we really know him just yet?” Now, sizeable numbers are saying, “I won’t vote if he is the candidate.”
McCain has successfully tied himself the most unpopular president in modern history. Although he seems desirous of separating himself, he still continues to support the same lame policies and decisions on the war, the tax system, the economy. social security, health insurance, etc.
McCain is unwanted by many in his own party. His nice guy image is being dissolved by his own rough style of speaking. His reputation for coziness with lobbyists is public. The compatibility of his temperament and control of the push-buttons of war is questioned. His hawkish manner is scary.
McCain is thought not to be a genuine conservative, but he has taken on all the odoriferous baggage of that wing of the party.
What happens in the fall is still to be determined, of course. Will democrats with strong negative feelings toward Obama, go out to vote against McCain if Obama is the candidate? Will those negative toward Hillary go out to support her, if she is the candidate? The latter appears more likely.
A big question is the effects of the negative campaigning, already raising finances and waiting in the wings to come on center stage for McCain. If a “swift-boat” type blitz hits, as expected, Obama appears to be the least likely of the two democrats to successfully weather that storm.
Thus, if Obama is the democratic candidate, McCain is the likely winner in the fall, regardless of his and his party’s negatives. If by unlikely chance Hillary wins the nomination, then she is the probable winner in the fall. Since she is still the underdog, Democrat success in the fall seems unlikely.
“A fine mess you have gotten us into!” seems an appropriate comment.
Dr. Edwin E. Vineyard, AKA The Militant Moderate
At this point in the presidential race, the Militant Moderate is prone to want to address the electorate, and the core leadership of both political parties, with that comment, “A fine mess you’ve gotten us into!”
We are left with three candidates in the race. From conversations with friends and acquaintances, as well as polls, all of these are unacceptable to a sizeable segment of the electorate.
Some Democrat friends tell me they will not now vote for Obama if he is the party candidate. Hillary has had a standing disapproval rating in the past of some 35% or 40%. Huge numbers of Republicans are threatening to bolt their party, and stay home or vote for Hillary.
It looks as though this election is shaping up to be one for perception as the “lesser of the evils.” If it carries through that way, then the previously unlikely scenario of the “moderate” Hillary as the November winner could happen – if her surge is not too late.
To support such a conclusion, one must look closely at the reasons for negativity toward each candidate, as well as its strength. This is why we pick Hillary.
Hillary has the higher level of negative numbers, but for shallow reasons. Further, her stronger negative ratings come from Republicans.
Since the preacher eruption linking Obama to the “angry black man” image, his negative numbers have been increasing. More questions arise, “Do we really know him just yet?” Now, sizeable numbers are saying, “I won’t vote if he is the candidate.”
McCain has successfully tied himself the most unpopular president in modern history. Although he seems desirous of separating himself, he still continues to support the same lame policies and decisions on the war, the tax system, the economy. social security, health insurance, etc.
McCain is unwanted by many in his own party. His nice guy image is being dissolved by his own rough style of speaking. His reputation for coziness with lobbyists is public. The compatibility of his temperament and control of the push-buttons of war is questioned. His hawkish manner is scary.
McCain is thought not to be a genuine conservative, but he has taken on all the odoriferous baggage of that wing of the party.
What happens in the fall is still to be determined, of course. Will democrats with strong negative feelings toward Obama, go out to vote against McCain if Obama is the candidate? Will those negative toward Hillary go out to support her, if she is the candidate? The latter appears more likely.
A big question is the effects of the negative campaigning, already raising finances and waiting in the wings to come on center stage for McCain. If a “swift-boat” type blitz hits, as expected, Obama appears to be the least likely of the two democrats to successfully weather that storm.
Thus, if Obama is the democratic candidate, McCain is the likely winner in the fall, regardless of his and his party’s negatives. If by unlikely chance Hillary wins the nomination, then she is the probable winner in the fall. Since she is still the underdog, Democrat success in the fall seems unlikely.
“A fine mess you have gotten us into!” seems an appropriate comment.
Dr. Edwin E. Vineyard, AKA The Militant Moderate
