Tuesday, April 01, 2008
FALL ELECTION WINNER
Evaluating the political scene at this time, the Militant Moderate is ready to project the winner. Meet your new president – John McCain.
Mind you, conditions do change, and with those the predictions also change. Nevertheless, at this point in time (as we pundits are prone to say), it looks like John McCain is a winner in November. Put your money on McCain.
“Why such a prediction so early?” one might ask. “Why have you chosen McCain as the winner?” you might add. “What is wrong with the winner of the Hillary and Obama contest?” you could continue.
Democrats have a way of shooting themselves in the foot. This time they have done so in narrowing the choice – to two non-traditional candidates, both of whom would enter the general election carrying negative baggage. No finalist is a traditional, middle-of-the-road candidate.
Further, as it now appears, the more mainstream of the two finalists is behind. The more liberal candidate is ahead, and the centrist candidate is behind. The voters of this country do not normally elect liberal candidates to be president, not recently anyway.
Obama is now the favorite to win the nomination. In so doing, he has alienated a large segment of the democrat voters, who are unlikely to give him enthusiastic support in the fall. The same would be true if it turns out the other way around.
The “Swift boater” groups have already raised millions and will raise much more before fall. They will run interminable ads featuring Obama’s outspoken church pastor condemning America. These ads will also feature his wife’s statement about only lately finding something to be proud of in America. The picture of his not saluting the flag will be everywhere. There will be other allegations and insinuations.
His statements about not wearing the flag lapel pin will be exploited. One wonders why he did not come right out and say, “Because the republicans have made that lapel pin a symbol of support for the Iraq War.” Lots of people resent that, and they would understand.
Some of us are appalled at the degree to which voters are influenced by emotion rather than by logic. Sometimes they seem oblivious to their own self interests – to those of the common citizen. Instead they tend to vote based upon emotional issues extraneous to the real problems facing government and the nation’s welfare.
No one knows this better than the special interest advertisers, who are allowed to ply their trade under loopholes left by the law passed in the guise of campaign reform. Before the political season is over Mr. Obama will look like a black Muslim of foreign allegiance, named Hussein, plotting with his liberal followers to overthrow the Christian government of the United States and turn the country over to Arab terrorists.
Voters will then forget all the woes brought upon the nation by eight years of republican rule. They will overlook the misbegotten war, after McCain softens his position by saying that we will exit as soon as the time is right. People will be misdirected away from the problems of budget deficits, rising national debt, recession, mortgage foreclosures, and the economic trauma of the lower and middle classes.
The voters will be brainwashed away from concerns for universal health insurance and health care, hearing fears of socialized medicine from “Harry and Louise” ads again. Fears of terrorists, fears of big government, fears of Social Security going broke, and all kinds of other fears will be used as smoke screens to obscure the real problems of this country.
“Good old” John McCain will then come across as the solid, fatherly type who will look after us if we just trust him and his friends to keep on running the country for us. People will vote him into office as a hedge against all those wild-eyed liberals in Congress like Nancy Pelosi.
And, folks, that is the way the story from the political tea leaves reads today.
Dr. Edwin E. Vineyard, AKA The Militant Moderate
Mind you, conditions do change, and with those the predictions also change. Nevertheless, at this point in time (as we pundits are prone to say), it looks like John McCain is a winner in November. Put your money on McCain.
“Why such a prediction so early?” one might ask. “Why have you chosen McCain as the winner?” you might add. “What is wrong with the winner of the Hillary and Obama contest?” you could continue.
Democrats have a way of shooting themselves in the foot. This time they have done so in narrowing the choice – to two non-traditional candidates, both of whom would enter the general election carrying negative baggage. No finalist is a traditional, middle-of-the-road candidate.
Further, as it now appears, the more mainstream of the two finalists is behind. The more liberal candidate is ahead, and the centrist candidate is behind. The voters of this country do not normally elect liberal candidates to be president, not recently anyway.
Obama is now the favorite to win the nomination. In so doing, he has alienated a large segment of the democrat voters, who are unlikely to give him enthusiastic support in the fall. The same would be true if it turns out the other way around.
The “Swift boater” groups have already raised millions and will raise much more before fall. They will run interminable ads featuring Obama’s outspoken church pastor condemning America. These ads will also feature his wife’s statement about only lately finding something to be proud of in America. The picture of his not saluting the flag will be everywhere. There will be other allegations and insinuations.
His statements about not wearing the flag lapel pin will be exploited. One wonders why he did not come right out and say, “Because the republicans have made that lapel pin a symbol of support for the Iraq War.” Lots of people resent that, and they would understand.
Some of us are appalled at the degree to which voters are influenced by emotion rather than by logic. Sometimes they seem oblivious to their own self interests – to those of the common citizen. Instead they tend to vote based upon emotional issues extraneous to the real problems facing government and the nation’s welfare.
No one knows this better than the special interest advertisers, who are allowed to ply their trade under loopholes left by the law passed in the guise of campaign reform. Before the political season is over Mr. Obama will look like a black Muslim of foreign allegiance, named Hussein, plotting with his liberal followers to overthrow the Christian government of the United States and turn the country over to Arab terrorists.
Voters will then forget all the woes brought upon the nation by eight years of republican rule. They will overlook the misbegotten war, after McCain softens his position by saying that we will exit as soon as the time is right. People will be misdirected away from the problems of budget deficits, rising national debt, recession, mortgage foreclosures, and the economic trauma of the lower and middle classes.
The voters will be brainwashed away from concerns for universal health insurance and health care, hearing fears of socialized medicine from “Harry and Louise” ads again. Fears of terrorists, fears of big government, fears of Social Security going broke, and all kinds of other fears will be used as smoke screens to obscure the real problems of this country.
“Good old” John McCain will then come across as the solid, fatherly type who will look after us if we just trust him and his friends to keep on running the country for us. People will vote him into office as a hedge against all those wild-eyed liberals in Congress like Nancy Pelosi.
And, folks, that is the way the story from the political tea leaves reads today.
Dr. Edwin E. Vineyard, AKA The Militant Moderate
