Saturday, December 30, 2006
WHAT WE KNOW ABOUT IRAQ
What do we know about Iraq? That is a suitable question to ponder as the world holds its breath to see what "the decider" is going to do now, since the administration's past and current approach has been condemned by everybody -- except the hardcore 21% of Americans polled. If some of "the decider's" advisors were to sit down together and examine what is known, or should be known, about Iraq, actions might begin to make sense.
What do we know about Iraq? Following are a few answers. Might this listing offer clues to rational actions?
Iraq is an arbitrarily created nation the size of California. Most of it is desert or mountainous, but there is a fertile area running across between the Tigris and Euphrates rivers -- once the cradle of civilization (and maybe the Garden of Eden). It had a total population of 26 million, decimated by departure of refugees and by casualties.
There are two kinds of Muslims -- Shiite and Sunni. Most of the Islamic world is Sunni, except for Iran and Iraq, and only 10% of the Muslim population is Shiite.
Iran is Shiite (Persian), and Iraq is 60% Shiite (Arab). Iraq is about 20% Sunni (Arab). It is nearly 20% Sunni (Kurd). Kurds are friendly to us. Saddam was a Sunni Arab.
Most of the oil in Iraq is in Kurdish or Shiite provinces (11 of 18).
The new government in Iraq is dominated by the Shiites on the basis of population, and the insurgency against the government has been largely Sunni.
The Kurds to not accept the Shiite government's control of the oil, or in deal making for producation and sale of oil. Neither do Sunnis.
The Shiites in Iraq are aided by Iranians of like religion, while the Sunnis are aided by the other Arab states of their religion.
The violent struggle is largely between the Sunni insurgency an the government dominated by the Shiite majority. Neither likes Americans.
The Kurds have had a semi-autonomous government in their own area, and violence is not a problem there. Their problem is fitting into the central government of Shiites.
The violent struggle in Baghdad has become an organized effort by Shiite militia, often overlapping with the police and the government army, to drive Sunni residents out of dually populated zones -- ethnic cleansing by area. Many Sunnis are in insurrection, a backlash against Shiites and their government. The U.S. is supporting the Shiite government.
It is unclear just how much or how little Al Quaida is adding to the mix of violence, except their targeting of U.S. troops with ambush attacks. The operate separately, but sometimes in consort with Sunni insurgents. The U.S. acts and speaks as if both are the same.
The U.S. is now performing the role of a biased armed referee favoring the Shiite government in its efforts to establish control over a resistant Sunni population. Shiites want to establish politically favorable zones, looking toward eventual governing power with oil money shares referred back to the provinces.
Everything that the U.S. does in Iraq exposes troops to hostile fire from both religious factions, and especially from largely Sunni Al Quaida bandits. Whatever the U.S. does in Iraq is viewed as hostile by some significant part of the Muslims of the world, thus complicating our relations.
* * * * *
Such simple knowledge about Iraq, and the nature of its internal problems, has thus far been unattended or ignored by "the decider" and his advisory corps. Thus armed, a wise and prudent person might well be able to reason out a proper course of action for this nation. That course would likely be one which would avoid further unnecessary risk to our troops on the ground there. It would be a course which would leave the Iraqis to find their own common ground for settling their sectarian political disputes without the U.S. troops as armed referees.
Dr. Edwin E. Vineyard, AKA The Militant Moderate
What do we know about Iraq? Following are a few answers. Might this listing offer clues to rational actions?
Iraq is an arbitrarily created nation the size of California. Most of it is desert or mountainous, but there is a fertile area running across between the Tigris and Euphrates rivers -- once the cradle of civilization (and maybe the Garden of Eden). It had a total population of 26 million, decimated by departure of refugees and by casualties.
There are two kinds of Muslims -- Shiite and Sunni. Most of the Islamic world is Sunni, except for Iran and Iraq, and only 10% of the Muslim population is Shiite.
Iran is Shiite (Persian), and Iraq is 60% Shiite (Arab). Iraq is about 20% Sunni (Arab). It is nearly 20% Sunni (Kurd). Kurds are friendly to us. Saddam was a Sunni Arab.
Most of the oil in Iraq is in Kurdish or Shiite provinces (11 of 18).
The new government in Iraq is dominated by the Shiites on the basis of population, and the insurgency against the government has been largely Sunni.
The Kurds to not accept the Shiite government's control of the oil, or in deal making for producation and sale of oil. Neither do Sunnis.
The Shiites in Iraq are aided by Iranians of like religion, while the Sunnis are aided by the other Arab states of their religion.
The violent struggle is largely between the Sunni insurgency an the government dominated by the Shiite majority. Neither likes Americans.
The Kurds have had a semi-autonomous government in their own area, and violence is not a problem there. Their problem is fitting into the central government of Shiites.
The violent struggle in Baghdad has become an organized effort by Shiite militia, often overlapping with the police and the government army, to drive Sunni residents out of dually populated zones -- ethnic cleansing by area. Many Sunnis are in insurrection, a backlash against Shiites and their government. The U.S. is supporting the Shiite government.
It is unclear just how much or how little Al Quaida is adding to the mix of violence, except their targeting of U.S. troops with ambush attacks. The operate separately, but sometimes in consort with Sunni insurgents. The U.S. acts and speaks as if both are the same.
The U.S. is now performing the role of a biased armed referee favoring the Shiite government in its efforts to establish control over a resistant Sunni population. Shiites want to establish politically favorable zones, looking toward eventual governing power with oil money shares referred back to the provinces.
Everything that the U.S. does in Iraq exposes troops to hostile fire from both religious factions, and especially from largely Sunni Al Quaida bandits. Whatever the U.S. does in Iraq is viewed as hostile by some significant part of the Muslims of the world, thus complicating our relations.
* * * * *
Such simple knowledge about Iraq, and the nature of its internal problems, has thus far been unattended or ignored by "the decider" and his advisory corps. Thus armed, a wise and prudent person might well be able to reason out a proper course of action for this nation. That course would likely be one which would avoid further unnecessary risk to our troops on the ground there. It would be a course which would leave the Iraqis to find their own common ground for settling their sectarian political disputes without the U.S. troops as armed referees.
Dr. Edwin E. Vineyard, AKA The Militant Moderate
